The southwest monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on June 1, thanks to a cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal, the India Meteorological Department said on Thursday. The IMD, in its onset date forecast on May 15, had said the monsoon is likely to hit the southern state on June 5, four days after its normal arrival.
The normal onset of monsoon over Kerala is June 1. However, a cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal is likely to help in the faster progress of the monsoon.
“A low pressure area is likely to form over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea during May 31 to June 4. In view of this, conditions are very likely to become favourable from June 1 for onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala,” the IMD said.
A low pressure area is the first stage of any cyclone. It is not necessary that every low pressure intensifies into a cyclonic circulation.
According to the IMD, the country is likely to receive normal monsoon this year.
A low pressure area has also formed over west-central Arabian Sea. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression over the same region during next 48 hours.
It is very likely to move northwestwards towards south Oman and east Yemen coast during next three days, the IMD added.
Under the influence of this weather system, heavy rainfall is likely over parts of south peninsular India during May 28-31, with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Kerala and Lakshadweep during May 30-31.
The IMD has also predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Tripura and Mizoram in the next 24 hours and heavy rainfall over Assam and Meghalaya.